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瑞银-汽车电子的未来:智能驾驶舱和自动驾驶.pdf

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 Global Research 15 March 2021 China Automotive Electronics Sector Equities Future of auto electronics: smart cockpits and China autonomous driving Auto Parts Nora Min Analyst S1460518050001 Potential Rmb150bn market as cockpits go smart; expect L2.5/L3 AVs to kick-off nora.min@ubssecurities.com Automotive cockpits are riding the wave of smart tech, propelled by policy, market and +86-21-3866 8905 technological factors. We estimate these are putting China's cockpit-electronics market on track to reach nearly Rmb150bn by 2025E (a 15% CAGR in 2020E-25E). Last year was a tipping point for autonomous vehicles (AVs) in China as it unveiled an intelligent vehicle innovation strategy and autonomous-driving-level scheme. Looking ahead, we expect autonomous driving to take off in China, with L2 (level 2) and L2.5/L3 AVs reaching 56% penetration by 2025E (versus about 12% in 2020E). For auto-part suppliers, we think smart cockpits and autonomous driving are positives for parts value- added. We initiate coverage of Desay at Buy and upgrade Joyson from Neutral to Buy. Smart cockpits: Four megatrends in place We reviewed the cockpit configurations of 174 models (1,281 variants in total). Among cockpit electronics products, we identify four key near-term trends: 1) all-LCD dashboard penetration badly lags both our and market forecasts, but adoption is set to jump on richer display content, more-intuitive formats and more-precise data display; 2) head-up displays (HUDs) are evolving into second dashboards, with penetration at 8% now versus our previous estimate of 5% (August 2020); 3) on in-vehicle infotainment (IVI)systems, LCD touchscreen-based central control panels are already widespread but we note trends towards bigger/more screens; and 4) natural-language voice interaction. Autonomous driving: More sensors open new frontiers for parts suppliers Per our conversations with experts, L2-capable vehicles comprised 10-15% of new passenger vehicle sales domestically in 2020. With related policies launched and OEMs actively investing, there is high visibility for accelerated penetration of AVs in China. Of autonomous driving's three building blocks—sensing, decision-making and action—we are upbeat on sensing's potential to power market growth for auto suppliers, which look well placed to benefit through R&D and production of the extra hardware (cameras, radar sensors, etc) needed for sensing. We forecast China's mmWave radar/ light detection and ranging (LIDAR) markets reaching Rmb14bn/Rmb38bn by 2025E. Valuation: Initiating on Desay at Buy; upgrading Joyson from Neutral to Buy We think investors have not fully caught on to the growth opportunity for technologically strong smart-cockpit and AV parts suppliers. We initiate on Desay at Buy (Rmb129.00 PT, DCF) and upgrade Joyson to Buy (Rmb29.80 PT, SOTP). We are positive on Fuyao Glass's opportunity to gain content value amid rising HUD adoption. Figure 1: UBSS-covered China's auto electronic parts suppliers—valuations Price PT PT PT 2021E 2022E Ticker Company (Rmb) Rating (old) (new) chg PE (x) PE (x) Remarks 002920.SZ Desay SV 81.92 Buy na 129.00 na 69.8 52.0 "Go smart" trend supports volume/ASP gains for Desay's smart cockpit business; able to mass produce many autonomous driving products; one of NVIDIA's four tier-1 suppliers globally. 600699.SH Joyson 19.53 Buy 21.50 29.80 +39% 40.4 28.5 NEV electronics backlog >Rmb15bn; solid knowhow in human-vehicle interface systems; supplies numerous major OEMs Note: Above data based on closing prices as of 12 March 2021. Source: Wind, UBS-S estimates www.ubssecurities.com This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Co. Limited. This is a translation of a Chinese research note published by UBS Securities Co Ltd on 15 March 2021. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 31. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

瑞银-汽车电子的未来:智能驾驶舱和自动驾驶.pdf

瑞银-汽车电子的未来:智能驾驶舱和自动驾驶.pdf

瑞银-汽车电子的未来:智能驾驶舱和自动驾驶.pdf

瑞银-汽车电子的未来:智能驾驶舱和自动驾驶.pdf

瑞银-汽车电子的未来:智能驾驶舱和自动驾驶.pdf

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