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VWID3.0拆解-电动汽车将如何重塑汽车行业?.pdf

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 Global Research 2 March 2021 Q-Series Equities EVs Shifting into Overdrive: VW ID.3 teardown – Global How will electric cars re-shape the auto industry? Automobiles Patrick Hummel, CFA Analyst patrick.hummel@ubs.com UBS tore down the most credible EV effort by any legacy auto company so far +41-44-239 79 23 The VW ID.3 is the start of VW's unparalleled EV offensive and a key proof-point for David Lesne the competitiveness of EVs, especially those of legacy automakers vs. EV pure-plays. Analyst Our key findings from the teardown include: (1) VW's EV platform (MEB) is fully cost- david.lesne@ubs.com competitive, providing a basis for EV sticker price and margin parity vs. conventional +33-1-4888 3034 cars by 2025; (2) batteries are still the main driver of cost reductions, and an area Tim Bush where Tesla has a $1-2k/car advantage; (3) software will be the next battleground and Analyst a significant revenue opportunity for those who can challenge Tesla's head start. tim-d.bush@ubs.com +852-2971 6113 Batteries: Short-term battleground – cost reductions and supply constraints Paul Gong Batteries will be the short-term focus as costs need to continue to come down while Analyst supply (including of raw materials) looks increasingly tight. In light of the steep EV sales paul.gong@ubs.com curve, battery procurement will become a key competitive flashpoint, and we expect +852-2971 7868 greater earnings potential for cell makers long-term. UBS Research and UBS Evidence Benedikt Baumann Lab also tore down the LG Chem cells used in the ID.3. Our analysis shows LG Chem is Analyst a cost leader together with Tesla and CATL, at ~$100/kWh on a cell level. benedikt.baumann@ubs.com +44-207-567 0123 Software: Long-term battleground – a potential game-changer for the industry Kohei Takahashi We are more confident than ever in a steep EV penetration curve: 20% market share Analyst by 2025, 50% by 2030, with a chance of 100% by 2040. The teardown has shown kohei.takahashi@ubs.com that leading legacy OEMs and suppliers can fully participate in the EV space in a +81-3-5208 6172 profitable manner. The picture is different in software (autonomous driving above all), Eugene Jung which has the potential to more than double the traditional auto revenue pool, lifting Analyst OP margins from the current ~5-10% to significant double-digit territory for those that eugene.jung@ubs.com can master the technology. Tesla remains several years ahead of legacy players here. +82-2-3702 8801 Sonal Gupta How to play it – winning "transformation" stories and some pure-plays Analyst We look at our most/least favoured stocks across autos, battery cells, chemicals, semis sonal.gupta@ubs.com and materials companies. If Tesla is the Apple of the new mobility world, leading legacy +91-22-6155 6063 OEMs like VW and Hyundai could be like Samsung, offering significant re-rating David Mulholland, CFA potential. Amongst auto suppliers, we prefer the biggest net content winners Valeo, Analyst Aptiv and Nidec. We take a strong positive view on battery cell makers LG Chem and david.mulholland@ubs.com CATL. Infineon is one of the biggest EV content winners in the semis space. +44-20-7568 4069 Figure 1: UBS Research & UBS Evidence Lab VW ID.3 Teardown Source: UBS, UBS Evidence Lab www.ubs.com/investmentresearch This report has been prepared by UBS AG. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 105. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

VWID3.0拆解-电动汽车将如何重塑汽车行业?.pdf

VWID3.0拆解-电动汽车将如何重塑汽车行业?.pdf

VWID3.0拆解-电动汽车将如何重塑汽车行业?.pdf

VWID3.0拆解-电动汽车将如何重塑汽车行业?.pdf

VWID3.0拆解-电动汽车将如何重塑汽车行业?.pdf

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