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亚太地区汽车行业报告:后COVID19时代的汽车世界.pdf

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Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 June 2020 This report is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Clients should contact representatives and execute transactions through a J.P. Morgan subsidiary or affiliate in their home jurisdiction unless governing law permits otherwise. Auto Sector Post-COVID19 World of Autos In this report, we lay out our observations and thoughts on the Asian Auto Asia Autos industry as we undergo COVID-19 in different levels and stages. We’re observing SM Kim AC an increased propensity to own vehicles amidst COVID-19, which we believe (82-2) 758 5710 would translate into resilient near-term demand if and when lockdowns are sangmyeong.kim@jpmorgan.com alleviated. This demand will likely be polarized to cheaper and expensive vehicle BloombergJPMA SMKIM options, hence companies that are levered to such skewness would likely prove J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, defensive against the current industry turmoil – select OEMs and dealers that are Seoul Branch levered to higher segment cars, two-wheeler manufacturers and xEV players (see Nick Lai AC page 5 for our stock recommendations within the region). As for a potential and (86-21) 6106 6353 eventual dissipation of COVID-19, while it may render some of the arguments in nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com the report less relevant in the future (i.e., the propensity to own vehicles may BloombergJPMA LAI decline), we do not deem it to be a headwind for the industry – COVID-19 is the SAC Registration Number: S1730520030008 single largest drag for the wholeauto industry, hence the end of it, if it happens, J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company would be the strongest catalyst for the sector, inour view. Limited Rebecca Wen AC  Increased propensity to own materializes in different aspects by markets. A (852) 2800-8505 drastic shift in transportation demand is seen globally, from public transportation rebecca.y.wen@jpmorgan.com and shared cars to owned vehicles, boosting people’s propensity to own cars. BloombergJPMA RWEN Affordability is a different question, due to which vehicle demand is likely to be J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific)Limited skewed to cheaper options (two-wheelers,used carsandsmall vehicles –likely to Akira Kishimoto AC be seen in Japan and India) and expensive ones (for customers that are less (81-3) 6736-8646 income-sensitive – more prominent in Korea and China). Hence while the akira.x.kishimoto@jpmorgan.com propensity-affordability equation is different by vehicle segment and region, we BloombergJPMA KISHIMOTO can at least assume that an increased proportion of disposable income would be JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. spent to own a vehicle. Gunjan Prithyani AC (91-22) 6157-3593  Pent-up demand to materialize, driven more by retail customers than fleet, gunjan.x.prithyani@jpmorgan.com ‘digitalization’ of sales likely expands. As evident from the cases of Korea BloombergJPMA PRITHYANI and China, we believe auto demand would show resilience in keymarkets once J.P. Morgan India Private Limited lockdowns are alleviated and sales channels reopen. In markets where offline Jun Ho Jung sales are less feasible, OEMs and dealers are shifting their sales channels online (82-2) 758-5705 – ‘digitalization’ is another trend we see amid COVID-19. Given the shift in junho.jung@jpmorgan.com transportation demand, we see more auto demand from retail customers than J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul Branch fleet, with skewness towards two-wheelers and higher segment cars compared with pre-COVID-19 levels.  What if COVID-19 ends? We think the large part of the current skewness in transportation demand or propensityto own vehicles would normalize over time, if we assume an eventual dissipation of COVID-19. That said, we don’t think this necessarily implies subdued auto demand. The absolute impact of COVID-19 on auto demand was clearly negative due to various reasons (lockdown, social distancing, unemployment, etc.). As such, the impact of the ‘termination of COVID-19’ on auto demand, if it happens, should be positive, especially with government stimuli set forth in major auto markets. See page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan doesand seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only asingle factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com

亚太地区汽车行业报告:后COVID19时代的汽车世界.pdf

亚太地区汽车行业报告:后COVID19时代的汽车世界.pdf

亚太地区汽车行业报告:后COVID19时代的汽车世界.pdf

亚太地区汽车行业报告:后COVID19时代的汽车世界.pdf

亚太地区汽车行业报告:后COVID19时代的汽车世界.pdf

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